May 3, 2011
By Sebastian Strangio
Asia Times Online
Hun Sen has also clearly welcomed the ongoing conflict with Thailand as a chance to rally support and further marginalize his political opponents.
PHNOM PENH - Fighting along the Thai-Cambodian border continued over the weekend after two agreed ceasefires broke down last week. At least 17 people have been killed and 50,000 evacuated on both sides of the border since the latest round of armed skirmishes and diplomatic salvos commenced on April 22. Some analysts now wonder whether the sustained armed clashes could eventually escalate into full-blown war.
As with past clashes, both governments have accused each other of instigating the conflict. In a statement on April 27, the Cambodian Council of Ministers denounced Thailand for its "naked and blatant aggression" that had resulted in "immense misery and suffering" for the Cambodian people. A day earlier, the Thai cabinet passed a three-point resolution authorizing "retaliatory military action" to push Cambodian troops out of disputed areas.
While it may be impossible to know who fired the first shots, many analysts agree that the conflict is an outgrowth of political turmoil in Thailand, reflecting an attempt by the Royal Thai Army to cement its position at the center of Thai politics ahead of elections set to be held by July. What is less clear are the factors driving decision-making on the other side of the border, where Prime Minister Hun Sen and his ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) have long maintained a stranglehold on domestic politics.
Since the military coup that overthrew former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006, Cambodia's strongman has played a cameo role in Thailand's unfolding domestic drama, alternatively courting and sniping at a succession of Thai leaders.
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