Domestic issues fuel Thai-Cambodian spats

Papa Xen's future dick-tator Hun Manet

Apr 30, 2011
By Nelson Rand
Asia Times Online

NONG KUN NA and BANGKOK - Fighting between Thai and Cambodian troops along their disputed border continued on Friday for an eighth consecutive day despite reports the day before that a temporary ceasefire had been reached.

Since armed hostilities resumed on April 22, at least 16 people have been killed, over 50 injured and at least 50,000 displaced on both sides of the border. Strategic and political analysts foresee sustained sporadic fighting, though the chances of the clashes escalating into full-scale war still seem slim.

"Thailand's and Cambodia's relationship is fragile and fighting will likely erupt again," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thai political scientist at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. "The dispute has been too politicized that it will take a long time before ties will be healed," he added.

"I doubt that a ceasefire will hold because the border tensions are now being driven by their own dynamic," said Marc Askew, a senior fellow at the University of Melbourne who specializes in Thai politics and security issues and who is editor of the recently published book Legitimacy Crisis in Thailand.

The latest bout of fighting is centered around a disputed hill near the ancient temples of Ta Krabey and Ta Moan, representing an expansion of previous hostilities that centered on the contested Preah Vihear temple. Although both countries have long laid claim to these ancient ruins and border territories, most analysts believe the conflict is being driven more by domestic politics in both countries.

"[The border conflict] is a function of the two states' domestic politics, and especially Thailand's civil and military relations in the midst of a major political transition," wrote Stratfor, a United States-based private intelligence firm, in a recent analysis of the conflict.

"On the Cambodian side, nationalism is always a way to boost Prime Minister Hun Sen's leadership, and Cambodia is no doubt willing and ready to exploit a neighbor consumed by intense factional politics," Stratfor wrote in a separate analysis.