WHO Shoots First?

By Pang Sokheoun
29-04-2011


We have heard the endless accusation game of the two countries about who shoots first in the Thai-Cambodian conflicts. Now I may analyze this as a tip.

IT IS THAILAND

• Extremist group pressure: The extremist group in Thailand may pressure Abhisit and Thai military to attack Cambodia in order to revenge Cambodia for jailing heir friends and to takeover those Khmer Prasat by forces.
• Leadership conflict: Thai army and Abhisit are not getting along. They have internal conflict over how to resolve the conflicts with Cambodia. Abhsit may want to have talk but not the army.
• Power status-quo: Thai army has been viewed as the champion of coup de´ta in the world. It is the elite in the army that control Thailand. These people want to sustain their power sources by waging war against Cambodia and testing their military might.
• Nationalism: The dispute is seen as a way to rally nationalist sentiment and also, most importantly, to entrench the armed forces at the center of national security and political life. In the run-up to what is expected to be a hotly contested national election, keeping in the center of politics will be crucial for the military, and so they are unlikely to abandon the dispute.
• Military pressure for bilateral talk: It is the only option that Thailand can do now in order to pressure Cambodia back to bilateral talk. Thailand never wants third party to get involved or it will lose again. Thailand dares to choose this option because it clearly understands the the weakness of ASEAN, Cambodian leaders and Cambodian military logistic. It seems to prove right that Hun Xen a few days ago gave a blink that he opted to accept bilateral talk for the two temples- Prasat Ta Mean Thom and Prasat Ta Korbey, but Thailand needs all negotiations in bilateral principle with Cambodia, included Prasat Preah Vihear. So it must continue the the attack.
• Diplomatic and political justification: To tell the World Heritage Committee (WHC) that the conflicts don´t occur only at Preah Vihear temple. They happen anywhere because the two countries haven´t completed the border survey and demarcation yet. So, the conflicts around Preah Vihear temple is not the only case and WHC should reconsider about Thailand´s request to withdraw the Preah Vihear Listing and the management plan areas around it.
• Abhsit´s government´s status-quo: Abhsit and military may want these conflicts to be more escalated in order to remain in power without election.
• Internal issues distraction: Abhishit and the army may want to distract Thai people from condemning their incompetent leadership in dealing with the internal conflicts, southern violence, and social and economic injustice in the country.
• Offensive diplomacy against Cambodia: It is also a way to save its face in the international arena by trying to demoralizing Cambodia through its two strategical faces: diplomatically initiate peaceful negotiation in the front and strategically plan the attack at the back. And then fuel offensive propaganda that Thailand is acting in self-defense and proportion.
  

IT IS CAMBODIA

• World attention: To get the attention of the third party, ASEAN, UNSC and others.
• Internal distraction: Hoon Xen may use this a pretext to distract Cambodian people to from his violent rule in the country, like land eviction and economic hardship.
• Distraction from Eastern invasion: It is also a means to distract Cambodians from Viet invasion at the east.
• Family political dynasty: It is the only chance for his son to build up his merits for future´ political career, to replace him(?).
• Nationalism and power: To gain more supports from the people so that he can cling on longer to power.

NOTE: To the observers, it is believed that Thailand is being viewed as the provoker because it has refused to accept the multiparty talk and sign the Term of Reference to allow the international observers to monitor the border conflict areas in order to maintain peace. Whereas Cambodia has repeatedly demanded it and more importantly Cambodia is weaker than Thailand, so there is no reason that Cambodia provokes war against its more powerful neighbor. Most importantly, those Prasats geographically and legally belong to Cambodia so there is no reason that Cambodia invades Thailand.